Jacob deGrom pitched a beautiful game tonight. 15 strikeouts. He also got a couple of hits and an RBI because, you know, he’s deGrom and that’s what he does.
Crazy good. I hope the rest of the season is like this for him and he gets his third Cy Young.
YAY we finally got to watch the Mets play today!
…And they lost. Which is unusual for them in their first game of the season.
But maybe that means the rest of the year will go well, huh?
You may have noticed (or not, depending on how much of a baseball fan you are, haha) that I posted nothing about opening day yesterday.
That’s because the Mets didn’t play.
The Mets didn’t play because they were supposed to play the Nationals.
And the Nationals have five players quarantined due to COVID.
No COVID cases at all throughout all of Spring Training for any team, but right before the seasons starts…of course.
So yeah, great start. They might play tomorrow, though!
Edit: nope, that whole series is getting delayed. They’re playing their first game on Monday against the Phillies.
So like everything else this year, baseball got all screwed up by COVID. But there were still some Twitter highlights, at least. Here’s a list!
My Plans: 2020:
Mets fans only fans who get nervous with a 5 run lead in the 9th
The Mets just hit a walk-off at Yankee Stadium.
What a strange year.
It turns out all these “Schitt’s Creek” headlines are about the Emmys, not the Mets’ postseason chances.
Last night: He’s day-to-day with a stomach bug
This afternoon: He’s receiving some fluids at Hospital for Special Surgeries
Tomorrow: 15-day IL
Sunday: Jed Lowrie
Win probability off the charts!
So I’m in major baseball withdrawal and there’s not really an easy way to fix it, but let’s pretend we can by doing that little baseball analysis thingy that I’ve done for the 2016, 2017, and 2018 seasons, but now let’s do it for 2019!
A reminder of what this analysis is, since it’s been more than a year (I think):
At the end of the regular baseball season, you can see how many wins each team got out of the total number of games they played, and then rank the teams by their performance (who had the most wins, the second most wins, etc.).
What I want to do is see how this “real” data correlates with how many wins each team would get if they scored their average number of runs per game in every single game they played. For example, if the Phillies score an average of 4.78 runs per game, how many of their games would they have won by scoring 4.78 runs in each of those games?
(Yes, I know you can’t score a fraction of runs in a single game, but just pretend you can, huh?)
- Record each team’s average runs per game (I’ll call this “RPG”) (from here).
- Sort teams from highest to lowest RPG.
- Now, if a team A has a higher RPG than team B, that would mean that A would win every game they play against B. So the next step was to figure this out for each pairing of Team A versus Team B.
- I used this logic for all pairings, then summed across the rows to get the “predicted” number of wins based on RPG alone. I ranked the teams according to how many predicted number of wins they’d get (“1” meaning the most, “30” meaning the least). Then I compared looked at how each team’s “predicted” ranking compared with their “actual” ranking.
How do they compare for the 2019 season?
The Yankees (highest RPG, “Predicted” rank of 1) would have won every game they played; Miami and Detroit both would have lost every game they played (lowest RPGs, “Predicted” ranks tied at 29). Poor Colorado did a lot worse in real life than they would have scoring their average number of runs per game. Coors Field effect, maybe?
The “Diff” column is calculated by taking the predicted rank minus the actual rank. Positive “Diff” numbers suggest teams did better than they would have had they scored their average number of runs in every single game. Negative “Diff” numbers suggest teams did worse than they would have had they scored their average number of runs in every single game.
Correlation of team rankings based on RPG-predicted games won and actual games won: 0.811
So Nate found this six-part series on the Seattle Mariners and it is absolutely enthralling. Only parts 1-4 have been uploaded so far, but the next installment involves ICHIRO which is really the first thing I can remember about the Seattle Mariners. Check out the vids here (I’ll just post them all here once they’re all uploaded):
(That third one is intense.)
Seriously, even if you’re not really a baseball fan, this is super interesting.
Even if you don’t follow baseball, you probably know the name “Barry Bonds.”
Well, want to see how good of a player he would have been even without a bat? Check it:
All that data makes me hot, yo.
I miss baseball.
FREAKING YAY I AM SO EXCITED FOR BASEBALL YOU HAVE NO IDEA
Baseball season = the warm, sunny, long-days part of the year. The best part of the year. I neeeeed.
Freaking Astros. Why? Why did you cheat?
The Astros were probably my third favorite team. Springer, Altuve, Correa, Bregman – I liked all of them. Now I’m sad.
Edit: oh my god:
This season’s going to be rough for them.
Okay, they earned that. Good for them!
I like a lot of Houston’s players, but Scherzer is great and I still dig Cabrera, so I’m glad they won it.
(Now let the Mets win it next year!)
Cheering is absolutely a sport.
(So is marching band, fight me.)
How long must have all that taken to choreograph, learn, and perfect?
So I’m an impatient bastard and I want my Canadian Baseball League World Series results NOW.
Thus, rather than simulate day-by-day (like I’ve been doing the whole semester), I just did everything today so that it was all done and we know who won the World Series!
So LET’S LOOK AT THE RESULTS!
[Edit: I’m uploading this blog from SeaTac, actually, and I just realized that I forgot to save the related images on my flash drive. So since I can’t remember the details off the top of my head, y’all are going to have to wait until I get back to Calgary for the rest of this blog. Stay tuned! This will be updated soon. Sorry!]
So the Mets’ season officially ended yesterday. SADNESS!
As I’ve mentioned, Twitter is basically my baseball info hub, and most of my liked Tweets are baseball-related (the rest are math/stats-related, walking-related, or PRIMO MEME CONTENT).
So as a little tribute to the end of the regular season, I present the Mets’ 2019 season in Tweet form! Enjoy.
The (fake) baseball season (and the real one too, I guess) officially ended today! Here are the final standings going into the playoffs:
Here are the batting/pitching leaders:
Such a cool moment.
That is all.
So the Mets officially got eliminated from playoff contention today.
But we can still live for the chance that Alonso beats Judge’s rookie home run record. He’s so close!
The Canadian League leaders have been determined! Still waiting on a few in the National League, though.
All the simulation pitchers are getting hurt, so it’s probably a good thing the season is almost over.
TEAMS ARE GETTING ELIMINATED FROM CONTENTION
HEARTS ARE BEING BROKEN AS WE SPEAK
Also, Simulation Jose Reyes got his 2,000th hit.
We’re starting to see some teams eliminated from contention! It’s sad. Poor Vancouver. Hamilton’s killing it, though.
OH GOD FAKEBALL
That is all.
The number of baseball-related posts has been increasing over the past few years, huh? If you’ve known me from high school or college, you know I’m not really into sportsball. Take the Vandal football games, for example. I really didn’t pay attention to the football at all because I didn’t care; I was just there for the marching band experience.
But baseball is different, and I figured I’d take a few minutes to explain why (in case you’re wondering why the hell there are so many baseball posts when I’d really never talked about sports before).
Let’s do it!
My mom used to watch the Braves a lot when I was a young kid (she liked their announcers). I don’t remember too much from my first few elementary school years (apart from coos and other miscellaneous nonsense that doesn’t matter), but it seems like my mom had baseball on every night during the season. I was too young to really understand it (or at least I didn’t seem to care enough to try to understand it past the basic premise), but the sound of a baseball game (and that freaking tomahawk chop chant the Braves fans do) triggers serious nostalgia for me.
Apart from my grandparents being obsessed with Mark McGwire during his steroid home run era and that one year that the Mariners were good, I never really watched much baseball after that. I didn’t know the teams, I didn’t follow who won the world series, I didn’t really even think about it much.
Fast forward a whole bunch to 2015. Nate and I started living together in June of that year. He’d expressed that he liked baseball and I told him I liked it too (even though I was definitely not up on current baseball news/players/etc. and I definitely didn’t have the knowledge of the game that he had). So at some point he decided to get a subscription to MLB TV so that we could watch the Mets (his favorite team).
But it wasn’t really until the 2016 season where I really got into it. I started to know the game better (thanks mostly to Nate, haha). I started to know the players and become invested in them. I got more familiar with the teams, leagues, and the general competition.
Now I love it. I love all the stats. I love all the weird little things that can happen in a baseball game. I love how long the season is and how that means that there are so many opportunities for teams to hit winning or losing streaks. I’ve got, of course, my favorite players.
Plus, it’s something I enjoy watching and discussing with Nate. I can also watch and enjoy it while still having my music blasting on my headphones, so that’s always a plus.
I don’t know. I just really like it. It’s exciting to me.
(Apologies, though, to anyone who reads my blog who doesn’t like baseball, haha.)
We’re getting down to the end of the season!
There have been like seven squabbles this past week, haha. Lots of suspensions. But Simulation Robinson Cano got his 300th hit, so that’s neato.
More fakin’ with the baseball type stuff. WOO!
Now we’re starting to see a little more separation.
Also, Simulation Cespedes is hurt again. KEEP HIM OFF THE RANCH