Take a look at what the Mets are doing right now:

This is a graph of the Mets’ probability of making it to the postseason. As you can see, the probability had been taking a dive for most of the season, bottoming out at 6.7% on August 19th. They basically had a very, very small chance of making it.

Less than a month later, that probability has shot up to 63%. That’s pretty crazy. They’re just out of the wildcard spot now. I think it’s especially interesting when you consider that none of the other teams even remotely in contention have any huge upswings or downswings (except maybe the Cardinals).

(Sorry, I like graphs.)

(And now I can use the “sports” category for the first time in like 4 years.)